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Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-Season-July
South Atlantic Subtropical Storm Cari Well isn't this neat. Yet another storm forms in the South Atlantic, this one is subtropical. It's currently off the coast of Brazil and heading southeast out to sea, but Cari is still a potential surf threat with her 45 mph winds. It's not every day we see storms in this part of the world, and only recently in 2011 did Brazil adopt a naming list for the area. Ryan1000 20:19, March 11, 2015 (UTC) May 01L.ANA 90L.INVEST I'm a little surprised nobody is talking about this. But anyway, the NHC has designated this invest with a medium chance of developing into a subtropical/tropical cyclone. I think that if it does manage to develop it will have more chance of being subtropical. And, according to Jeff Masters' Wunderblog, it is also the third earliest formation for a season's first invest. C'mon Ana! Simlover123 18:23, May 6, 2015 (UTC) :At this time I believe that we will have a subtropical storm by Friday. I'll be posting a track image once I'm more certain of it's formation. Supportstorm (talk) 20:04, May 6, 2015 (UTC) :already It's only May 6th. Oh, well, why not start the season early? I'm sure the Carolinians (If that's what you call people from Carolina) aren't looking forward to it though. leeboy100My Talk! 21:16, May 6, 2015 (UTC) ::Yeah, it would be cool if we can start the season this early. We're about to probably get a subtropical storm "Ana", the first storm to form this early since I think Ana from 2003 (weirdly, they are the same name). Hope it won't be that bad in the Carolinas! Also, here comes the jokes and memes about her, if it does become named! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 03:37, May 7, 2015 (UTC) ::::Third earliest ATL invest over the past 10 years according to Dr. Masters latest blog post, though I don't expect it to become strong, if it does become Ana at all. Ryan1000 03:56, May 7, 2015 (UTC) :::::Hurricane Hunters had found winds in excess of tropical storm force this morning. I guess this will mean that if it gets upgraded, it will go straight to Subtropical Storm Ana. It could still be designated as tropical but I'm thinking subtropical at this point and a potential transition into a tropical storm before reaching the coast. Simlover123 19:30, May 7, 2015 (UTC) Heh. STD 1 confirmed.--Isaac829 21:18, May 7, 2015 (UTC) GAHHH! Steve! You beat me to it. I was just about to type the fact that they have the same name. Oh, well. Anyways, winds are now 45 MPH but this is still being called an invest (according to wunderground)! I'm going to again say what I said last year in the Pacific forum: Go back to building your snowman, Ana! leeboy100My Talk! 22:34, May 7, 2015 (UTC) :Actually Isaac, I think if/when it's upgraded it will be classified as STS Ana. Simlover123 23:17, May 7, 2015 (UTC) ::The invest is now at 90%. Here comes Ana! Once Ana comes from this, I really hope it becomes a hurricane, and since it has never been a hurricane in the Atlantic before, I would get really disappointed and maybe frustrated if it doesn't become a hurricane. Please, Atlantic, pull a strengthening trick on this invest so we can see a Hurricane Ana and not a pathetic epic fail in intensity! While it isn't likely Ana will become a hurricane, there is still the chance. C'mon, future Ana, do it for the Frozen character! :D --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 00:26, May 8, 2015 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Ana "NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT."--Isaac829 02:09, May 8, 2015 (UTC) Well, I knew this was coming. To show my enthusiasm, I'm going to bed, it's getting late over here. I wonder how strong it will be tomorrow leeboy100My Talk! 02:16, May 8, 2015 (UTC) :The 2015 season wanted to start early, I guess! If I'm not mistaken this is the earliest formation of a season's first system in a while. She is expected to transition into a tropical storm before reaching the coast so we'll see how she does. Looks primarily more of a rain threat than a wind threat at this point. Simlover123 02:48, May 8, 2015 (UTC) :::The last time a storm formed this early was the 2003 Ana, which formed in April. This isn't expected to get very strong as it slowly creeps towards SC by Sunday, like simlover said, this'll probably be more of a rain and surf event for the carolinas than a wind event. Ryan1000 11:09, May 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ana She's fully tropical now with winds of 60 mph and a 1001 mbar pressure, but it had a lower pressure of 998 mbar earlier so she is probably now just feeling the colder shelf waters. Owen 14:32, May 9, 2015 (UTC) Ana is looking very organized now, and just like Owen said, 60 mph winds, 1001 millibars. leeboy100My Talk! 14:50, May 9, 2015 (UTC) : I'm starting to doubt that Ana will become a hurricane. It's continuing to inch closer to land, and as of the latest advisory, is still pinned at 60 mph. Unless it pulls some sort of strengthening surprise, looks like "Hurricane Ana" might as well wait until 2021. I really wanted a hurricane, but I guess it's time might be almost up, since it's about to landfall in the Carolinas soon. This face totally describes my reaction to Ana failing to be a hurricane: ಠ_ಠ --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:34, May 9, 2015 (UTC) ::Well, this is truly a surprise for me. I didn't expect Ana to form in the Atlantic so soon. Welcome, 2015 AHS! Anyway, Ana has rather ragged-looking convention, and as Owen stated above (welcome back, BTW, to you and Leeboy), cooler waters and land interaction should lead to its demise over the next couple days (Steve, Ana already became a hurricane in the CPAC; remember?). Motionwise, a trough system moving eastward over the US should force the storm more northward within the next day or so, before being absorbed by an extratropical system over Atlantic Canada in ~72 hours. Although a TS warning is currently in effect for part of the Carolinas, I doubt there will be any significant impacts. Finally, to end my post, I would like to give a disclaimer - Ana's early formation is not necessarily the harbinger of an active season. As far as I know, the EPAC has witnessed El Niño conditions for the past five months, and NOAA is giving a high chance of that happening this upcoming summer. In addition, early-forming Gulf Stream systems are rather random events and don't often signal active seasons (see Hurricane Arthur from last year and four of the five storms that kickstarted the 1997 season). Nevertheless, Ana is still a storm to watch. AndrewTalk To Me 01:39, May 10, 2015 (UTC) :::Yes Andy, I remember that CPac hurricane, but I was wanting it to be a hurricane in the Atlantic because it has never been a hurricane in this basin before! It would've been the first ever "Hurricane Ana" in the Atlantic. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 02:18, May 10, 2015 (UTC) :::::Ana is too close to land to reach hurricane strength at this point. It'll probably hit just south of the SC/NC border at the intensity it is now, or slightly weaker. Hopefully impacts won't be too bad for them. Ryan1000 03:41, May 10, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ana Ana made landfall near Myrtle Beach, and it looks better on land than it was in the water.--Isaac829 18:12, May 10, 2015 (UTC) She's really fighting to stay alive. However, strengthening shouldn't be expected even when it re-emerges over water because of high wind shear and colder waters. Ana is a perfect example that reminds us that even though an inactive season is predicted, we can still get things like this that can strike your area, although it could've been worse. It doesn't seem like damage is too major, but the Carolinas did get some beach erosion. Owen 20:12, May 10, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana Down and out...until 2021. Ryan1000 12:05, May 12, 2015 (UTC) Goodbye Ana, and also goodbye wiki for a few days, I'm going across country to visit relatives and I won't be back until Saturday or Sunday. leeboy100My Talk! 23:03, May 12, 2015 (UTC) P.S. before I leave, thanks for the welcome, Andrew. leeboy100My Talk! 23:05, May 12, 2015 (UTC) June I'm surprised no one even started this, but happy hurricane season! It looks like this year's season will be yet another quiet one, thus I'm predicting final totals of 9/4/2 as of right now but that total could change throughout the season. We might be leaving the active phase that began in 1995 so we'll see what this season has to offer! Owen 17:50, June 2, 2015 (UTC) 02L.BILL AOI: Near Yucatan Peninsula Currently 0/10, but upper-level winds should prevent this from even attempting to become a depression! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:20, June 12, 2015 (UTC) 20/30 and now with the invest tag (91). currently a rain threat to the already flooded texas. totally destructive|request tracks to me! 17:31, June 13, 2015 (UTC) : 40/50. The Atlantic just made me eat my words. I guess upper-level winds won't be so much of a threat anymore and it could become of a Bill in the next few days or so. It sucks because I wanted "Bill" to be used for a stronger storm and not a weak one! --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:03, June 13, 2015 (UTC) :: Well to be honest I would have prefer Ana to be a hurricane than Bill because Bill already got its chance in 2009. Anyways if it reach tropical storm status I predict a 40 to 45mph peak at most. If it becomes Bill we will be going in a fast pace to be honest considering this is an el Niño year.Allanjeffs 18:23, June 13, 2015 (UTC) 91L.INVEST El Nino years sometimes have fast starts in the ATL. It's a bit more worrysome if they developed in the deep tropics. If this wants to form, it has to fight moderate to strong shear. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 19:35, June 13, 2015 (UTC) : It might become Bill by the time it reaches Texas, but it won't get past minimal TS strength if it does so; conditions are only marginally favorable in it's path, and it doesn't have much time. If it doesn't become Bill by Tuesday, it'll just be an unnamed depression or remain a wave. And Allan, it's not unusual for the Atlantic to have fast starts in El Nino years. 1997, for example, had record-early activity at the time, getting to Danny by July 16. But that year had a completely dead August, only one major in September, and little of note. Typically the ATL in ENSO years gets an active start but a below-average mid-season. Then again, El Nino years still shouldn't be taken less seriously than non-El Nino years, because it only takes one bad storm to make a whole season memorable (Andrew). 'Ryan1000' 00:38, June 14, 2015 (UTC) ::Even if 91L does not develop, it is already causing flooding issues and near gale-force winds for the Yucatán and Guatemala. A Hurricane Hunter flight is going to investigate the invest this afternoon, but I doubt this will be anything more than a moderate TS, let alone make a landfall while tropical as it moves NW. Also, chances of formation are now '''60%' for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 13:13, June 14, 2015 (UTC) ::now 70/70. could be an (sub) tropical storm if it keeps at this pace. totally destructive|request tracks to me! 19:13, June 14, 2015 (UTC) :::The (first) Hurricane Hunters aircraft indicated an area of low pressure has formed in 91L and gale-force winds are occurring in the invest's extreme northern quadrant, but there is no well-defined circulation nor organized shower activity. However, with upper-level winds becoming more favorable in the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days, I won't be surprised if the second storm of the year comes from 91L. Moreover, its chances of formation are now 80% for the next two and five days. Also, tropical storm conditions, such as rainfall and heavy flooding, will be possible in regions of Texas and Louisiana regardless of development. On a side note, to highlight 91L's Guatemalan impact, this article (in Spanish; also in Carlos's discussion) shows rains from it and Carlos have already caused "consistent and copient rains" for the western regions of the nation, and could be bad for northern areas if it develops further (91L may have caused two deaths, one from soil saturation). AndrewTalk To Me 01:21, June 15, 2015 (UTC) :::::It's now at an 80% chance for development, but it has only one day left to become Bill (or an unnamed TD). By tomorrow, it'll be making it's way into Texas and miss its chance for development. Ryan1000 12:37, June 15, 2015 (UTC) :::::::Now at 90%, and TS-force winds are being recorded on some oil rigs in the gulf as we speak, but it still doesn't have a LLC, so NHC didn't upgrade it at the 5pm advisory. Another hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate it sometime before 8, and while it could easily become Bill later tonight, it won't get past minimal tropical storm strength before it hits Texas tomorrow morning. It should be noted, however, that even though it won't be strong, flooding rain is definitely a threat from this storm, seeing as Texas and Oklahoma have just experienced their wettest month on record and the soils are still very saturated. Some of the wettest tropical storms on record in the united states occured in Texas, most notably Allison, and lesser-known, though still historic, Claudette of 1979. Let's hope Bill doesn't approach those rainfall records. Ryan1000 20:59, June 15, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::This storm has a closed LLC. And probs 45-50 knts winds. Hell, it has a CDO. Pardon my language, but I'm fucking upset that this isn't upgraded. Why are classification standards so strict? Look at it, for cright out loud, this is a TS. No questions asked. It is well-organized with deep convection and a closed LLC. If it was up to me, this would have been declared at 3z yesterday. And don't think oh this is a weak tropical storm mentally. This looks really good and poised to intensify, and think this should become a hurricane prior to landfall. It may even intnesify inland because that is what models show. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:04, June 15, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::::It's honestly perplexing. I could rattle off many tropical storms in the Gulf/Caribbean in years past that have been far less organized than 91L when classified. Erin '07, Karen '13, pretty much any early June system, Barry 07... the list goes on and on endlessly. Dense convection over at least a weak and probably at least 40-45kt LLC, banding, strong persistent organization... I have no clue why they insist on waiting on recon. You'd think they'd be even MORE likely to upgrade a system when it's this close to landfall in order to issue warnings describing at least the rainfall and coastal threat the storm poses, but apparently not in this case. TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 21:45, June 15, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::You're back! I haven't seen you post in such a long time! :) Anyways, this really does look organized enough to be a tropical cyclone, and I'm a bit surprised it's not one yet. With it closing in on Texas, this should really become something named. I hope to see a "Bill" active in the GOM by tonight, or else I would get really disappointed, for it would probably just make landfall without being named at that point. But for now, Texas should look out for potential hazards like floods, etc. from future Bill. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:51, June 15, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::RECON in 91L to investigate future Bill. already reporting winds of 45 knots. source: Tropicaltidbits.com totally destructive|request tracks to me! 00:49, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::::Its one of the best invest I had ever seen, I am not sure why the NHC haven't upgrade it, they have upgrade worst looking systems like Jose, Henri, Danny and others. This looks poised to become a 65mph storm before landfall. If it had more time it would probably had been a hurricane. Allanjeffs 00:00, June 16, 2015 (UTC) (←)Although no recon data is back yet, the center of 91L appears very well-defined, and I am not sure why this is not a tropical storm yet. It could still not be recognized until post-season, but I expect to see the first advisory on Tropical Storm Bill within a couple of hours. Even if 91L does not develop, gale-force winds and other threats are still possible for Texas and Louisiana, and preparations should be made accordingly. Chances of formation are now '''90%' for the next two and five days per the NHC, but I think Bill has secretly arrived. AndrewTalk To Me 01:30, June 16, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Bill Special message on NHC's front page: "NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes 01:51 UTC." Finally! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:02, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :...aaaaaand the advisory has arrived as promised. "...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AS TROPICAL STORM BILL FORMS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS..." 45 kts/1005 mbar, only slight strengthening anticipated before landfall because of the sheer size of Bill (TS-force winds extend a whopping 160 miles from the center). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:13, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :::YE, reconnaissance aircraft didn't find a closed low-level circulation at the time they investigated 91L, so NHC refused to upgrade it. Sorry if they're too strict on conditions for a storm to be upgraded, but that's how they do things. Conditions just weren't favorable enough earlier on in it's life; if they were, this could've been Bill as soon as it left the Yucatan, but since it only became upgraded now, it's too close to land to intensify much. But even though it won't be very strong in winds, like I said before, flooding rain is definitely a serious threat with Bill since Texas and Oklahoma just got their wettest May on record, and the still-saturated soils are prone to being flooded. And yeah, I read earlier today on Dr. Master's blog post that there could be a "brown ocean" over parts of the central plains; if the soil becomes saturated enough there from rainfall, and temperatures are warm enough, an inland tropical cyclone could actually intensify there. This happened before with Erin in 2007, but more research is needed to draw conclusions about when and where things like that could happen. Ryan1000 03:21, June 16, 2015 (UTC) yeee bill (gates) is in da house! if that brown ocean effect happens... Erin '07 repeat? let's see if they regret the delay on the TCR. totally destructive|request tracks to me! 03:30, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :Odile, the NHC is a very well-known agency, and without their constant devotion to tracking tropical cyclones, hundreds more may have died. I'm not a huge fan when someone criticizes them like this (I understand you may be joking, but I take these comments seriously nonetheless). Anyway, Bill (I think of the former president when I hear his name, BTW) has changed little in organization, with most deep convection confined to the eastern quadrant. Moreover, its proximity to land will prevent any major strengthening, although recon data found Bill's winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph) with a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg). The storm's motion should be dictated by movement around the western quadrant of a high pressure system over the American Southeast for the next two days or so, before the westerlies prompt a northeastern turn. However, how long it will take for Bill to weaken over land is being argued upon by the models (and I do not want to see that "brown ocean" phenomenon take effect). As a word of caution, even though the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to High Island is the only coastal area under a TS warning, Bill's large size will likely cause notable impacts across both Texas and Louisiana; gale-force winds extend 150 miles from its center. AndrewTalk To Me 12:37, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :aaaaaaaaaaaand theres an eyewall forming in radar? totally destructive|request tracks to me! 15:00, June 16, 2015 (UTC) ::Landfall on Matagorda Island @ 1645 UTC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:02, June 16, 2015 (UTC) :::Bill is already beginning to weaken as it moves over Texas; winds are down to 45 knots (50 mph) with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). Doppler radar from Texas indicate the storm is beginning to move northwards over central Texas through a break in the STR, and in a couple of days, should accelerate NE into the Ohio River due to the influence of the westerlies. Even though Bill is weakening, this statement from the NHC discussion is making me uneasy: "...the inner-core banding structure of Bill has improved in radar imagery" (Stewart). I certainly hope this is not the "brown ocean" effect in action; that would be unnecessary for a region already dealing with excess rainfall. Nevertheless, the NHC forecasts Bill's weakening into a TD and then a remnant low over Texas on Wednesday, and from there dissipation by Friday or Saturday over the Ohio River Valley based on model guidance. Landfall may have occurred, but the threats are not done yet; the Texas coast from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass remains under a TS warning, a 41 mph wind gust was reported in Galveston, the tide at Port Lavaca is a few feet above normal, among other impacts as reported by the NHC. Oh, and don't go out risking your life taking pictures; stay safe! AndrewTalk To Me 22:06, June 16, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Bill Surprisingly, Bill appears to be maintaining its structure, based on the NHC discussion. However, surface observations suggest the storm is now a TD with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). Motionwise, the depression should move northward, straight over Waco and Fort Worth/Dallas, as it rounds the STR, before accelerating NE as it reaches the Ohio River Valley. Eventually, absorption over a frontal system over the Eastern U.S. is expected in about four days. Also, Bill is expected to remain tropical until moving over Oklahoma in another day or so (it's currently some 50 mi south of Waco) before becoming a remnant low, which could cause several inches of rain to fall on the already drenched Southern Plains. On a side note, the NHC is done issuing advisories; check the Weather Prediction Center for further information. AndrewTalk To Me 13:01, June 17, 2015 (UTC) : The WPC has put up flash flood warnings for much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, even extending all the way northeast to the Ohio river valley and mid-Missisipi river valley. Dallas-Forth Worth is bearing the brunt of the rainfall as we speak. Ryan1000 17:26, June 17, 2015 (UTC) :: So the central/midwest U.S. is currently being drenched, and when this storm is done we could see some damage and death tolls come out. I saw some pictures here and the flooding is getting pretty intense. I doubt it'll be retired, but who knows. It sucks Texas has to go through this :(--Steve820 Let's talk. • • 21:51, June 17, 2015 (UTC) :: I'm back and I've been through a lot lately. I was gone, because I got so sick I had to go the hospital. I got out earlier today. As soon as I heard about Bill (on Monday) I turned the TV on to The Weather Channel. I watched TWC all day yesterday. But I'm back. I have a friend in Oklahoma who is feeling the effects of the storm. Wunderground considers this dead. I'll be looking for updates on this soon, as for now I can't find any. leeboy100My Talk! 00:50, June 18, 2015 (UTC) :::Leeboy: advisories on Bill are currently being handled by the WPC. You can find a list of TCs they've handled here, and the latest advisory on Bill here. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:30, June 18, 2015 (UTC) ::::Bill is near the southern tip of Illinois, and "IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING."--Isaac829 23:15, June 19, 2015 (UTC) ::::Just tuned into TWC a few minutes ago, and saw that Bill is at 25 Mph well inland. I wasn't able to see what the pressure was, but dang! This thing just doesn't want to die! leeboy100My Talk! 23:48, June 19, 2015 (UTC) :::::I hope everyone, and I mean everyone is safe during this storm. I know a lot of people who live in the Ohio Valley (because I used to live there) so I hope they are safe! We could get a piece of the flooding too, since I live in Alabama. --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 01:07, June 20, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Well, the NHC did forecast Bill to stay alive over land until Friday, so I expected it to last this long. But apparently, judging from the above posts, the brown ocean phenomena occurred with Bill, and it has caused a lot of impacts so far. Winds are currently at 15 knots (20 mph), with a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). However, the WPC notes Bill has apparently maintained its circulation over land with outflow to its north and an axis of rain ahead of it. Moreover, as the depression crosses over the Appalachians, the WPC advises Bill could reintensify before the terrain interferes with its circulation, and might not become extratropical until it reaches the New England coast. Various flash flood watches are in effect for the aforementioned regions, as well as the Ohio River Valley. where Bill is located right now. On a side note, the WPC advisory shows how much precipitation has fallen in regards to Bill, with totals exceeding 5 to 6 inches in areas such as Corpus Christi, TX, and Springfield, MO. Also, while the impacts from Bill seem to be widespread, I am not impressed with them yet. For comparison, Hermine five years ago recorded higher peak gusts than Bill and over 16 inches of rain in Texas's Hill Country, compared to 11.77 inches near Ganado from Bill. In addition, the former caused eight deaths alone in the US, more than how much Bill has claimed altogether. Even with a $740 million (2010 USD) death toll, Hermine was not retired, so I don't see Bill going, either. AndrewTalk To Me 13:01, June 20, 2015 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Although Bill has maintained a well-defined circulation even over the Ohio River Valley, it has become post-tropical. Winds are reported to be at 15 knots (15 mph) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the WPC. As Bill's outer rain bands reach the Appalachians, it should slowly become extratropical by Sunday over southern New England, although the brown ocean phenomenon could utilize before then. Additionally, in some areas like Ohio, flood warnings are up for regions that have already witnessed copious precipitation totals; they can expect up to two or three inches more. Fortunately, impact from here on out should be minimized if preparations go smoothly. AndrewTalk To Me 21:17, June 20, 2015 (UTC) It will reach me soon! TheHurricaneMaster aka HurricaneSandy16 21:31, June 20, 2015 (UTC) recently joined : Andrew, Hermine '10 actually did only 240 million in damage to Texas and Oklahoma, the extra half a billion cited on the wikipedia article was from southern Mexico from TD 11-E at the time, though Hermine didn't form directly from 11-E, she formed from a combination of ex-11-E and a trough split in the southern GoM at the time. Still, that's the closest an EPac to ATL storm(s) have been connected as far as I'm concerned, and I'd consider them practically the same storm (though I would personally argue (Hattie)-Simone-Inga of 1961 is another). But I agree, I don't expect overall damages from Bill to be much worse than Erin or Hermine, it could still easily go into the 100-200 million dollar range, but this was no Allison-like flood disaster for the heartland. Ryan1000 15:00, June 21, 2015 (UTC) : July 03L.CLAUDETTE Aoi: East Coast storm all of the models are forecasting an small low to exit the Carolinas and develop into something tropical/subtropical the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 21:00, July 11, 2015 (UTC) 92L.INVEST It's now invested. I don't think it will become anything, but there could be a shot at Claudette despite the Atlantic continuing to be hostile for TC formation. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 16:02, July 12, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Claudette Steve, you aren't going to believe this, but according to Wunderground, this has become TS Claudette. Also, I'm without internet for a week and I come back to 7 tropical systems at once! '''Dang. leeboy100My Talk! 17:53, July 13, 2015 (UTC) oddly how i predicted right all the systems i post. o.O will be a short lived storm. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:53, July 13, 2015 (UTC) : Well I'll be damned, I didn't expect this one to become named at all. Nice stunt you pulled off there, Claudette. But, it's not going to last very long as it shoots to the northeast and hits Newfoundland in a day or two. Chantal 2.0. ''Ryan1000'' 19:50, July 13, 2015 (UTC) : Yeah she reminds me of Chantal of 2007 but anyways Claudette is even stronger than Enrique in the Epac lol.Allanjeffs 05:11, July 14, 2015 (UTC) ::Welp, damn. No category 2 here. DANNY WHERE ARE YOU --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'''Puffle]] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 21:51, July 14, 2015 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Claudette And poof.--Isaac829 04:52, July 15, 2015 (UTC) :Oh, this system officially made me ate my words. I didn't really expect this to be named due to somewhat hostile conditions currently scattered throughout the Atlantic, because of the currently occurring El Nino. This was just an easy come, easy go. Nice job stealing a precious name off the Atlantic naming lists :p --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 17:35, July 15, 2015 (UTC) 93L.INVEST 93L.INVEST I guess no one's really paying attention to the ATL right now...this invest was designated yesterday in the central atlantic and it's currently at 10% for two and 5 days. There's nearly 50 knots of wind shear over the Lesser Antilles right now, so it's going to have a tough time becoming Danny. Even if it does, it likely won't become very strong, nor affect land outside of some welcome rainfall in the leewards. Ryan1000 20:40, July 17, 2015 (UTC) :This is quite early to be seeing Cape Verde activity. Ryan, according to Jeff Master's recent blog post, 93L is currently in a shear environment of some 5-10 knots right now, but will move into that environment within a few days. Also, SST's in the invest's surroundings are just sufficient enough for TC development, although no models support formation. If 93L wants to become tropical, it better get itself together now. Also, the probabilities of formation remain the same from the NHC. AndrewTalk To Me 00:47, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :: Yeah but it's going to be moving towards that area in 2 days or so, and it's not looking well-organized right now either. Now down to near 0% for two and five days. I'd be quite surprised if it becomes Danny, the ATL is a warzone of unfavorable conditions right now. Ryan1000 05:53, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :::I'm picturing a fish Category 3-4-5, Danny, anyone? RIP. Iwata D: :::--[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 16:44, July 18, 2015 (UTC) ::::It's now officially off the TWO. Puffle, you were way too over-the-top right there, especially since the Atlantic continues to be an exceedingly hostile warzone for TC formation to occur. This invest didn't even have much depression potential, just saying. --Steve820 Let's talk. • • 18:58, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :::::It may have a chance of becoming something in the Pacific, but only time will tell. Most models shown on Wunderground take 93L north of Hispaniola in the next couple days away from the area of strongest shear. AndrewTalk To Me 20:25, July 18, 2015 (UTC), updated 21:09, July 18, 2015 (UTC) :::::it later became Guillermo in the EPac. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 18:59, July 31, 2015 (UTC) Aoi: Florida-East coast/GoM storm Aoi: Florida-East coast/GoM storm all of the models are predicting an small TS or subtropical storm to form in the GoM or in the east coast in the next days. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 19:08, July 26, 2015 (UTC)